We Need A New American Narrative For Talking About Climate Change

According to March 13, 2025 data from Yale Opinion Maps, 72% of Americans believe global warming is happening and only 14% do not. (By comparison, in 2022 YouGov reported that 34% of Americans believe UFOs are either alien ships or alien life forms, up from 20% in 1996). Nearly two-thirds (63%) are worried about global warming and 37% are not.

At the same time, climate change is not a top priority for most Americans. According to a February 6, 2023 Report by the Pew Research Center (Pew), only 37% of Americans regard dealing with climate change as a top priority. It is 17^th on a list of 21 priorities, ahead of dealing with global trade (although that’s probably higher now), addressing issues around race, dealing with challenges facing parents, and dealing with the coronavirus outbreak. The top issues are strengthening the economy (75%), reducing health care costs (60%), defending against terrorism (59%), reducing the influence of money in politics (59%), and making Medicare financially sound (58%).

That said, there is a great partisan divide. Dealing with climate change is in the bottom three issues for Republican/Lean Republican (Republican) at 13%, tied with addressing issues around race and just ahead of the coronavirus outbreak at 12%. For Democrat/Lean Democrat (Democrat) the number for climate change is 59%, a gap of 46 points with Republicans. But even for Democrats, climate change only ranks eighth and below protecting the environment at 67%, where there is a 47 point gap with Republicans.

I am going to explore these partisan differences in more depth. From this analysis I will make the case that we need a new narrative for how to talk about climate change. Right now it is largely a liberal one. Conservatives aren’t buying it. Independents are somewhere in between. As of September 30, 2024 there were 186.5 million registered voters in the United States; 45.1 million registered Democrats (24.2%) and 36 million (19.3%) registered Republicans for a total of 47% of the total. The rest are registered Independents, undeclared, or no party affiliation. We cannot create the needed long-term, stable, and bipartisan policies to address climate change if it’s a conversation that is only resonating in a big way with one-quarter of the population.

The Causes and Time Frames of Climate Change and Global Warming

According to Yale Opinion Maps, 59% percent of Americans believe global warming is caused by human activity and 29% do not. Nearly two-thirds (65%) think it’s affecting the weather and only 6% do not. A December 9, 2024, Pew report shows that a sharp partisan divide exists. Whereas 70% of Democrats think that human activity contributes a great deal to global climate change, this is true for only 20% of Republicans. While only 6% of Democrats think human activity contributes not too much or not at all to global warming, this is true for 44% of Republicans.

Gallup provides data on perceptions about when the effects of global warming will occur. Since 1997 the percentage of people who believe it is already happening has risen from around 50% to 63%. In 2025 only 12% felt it will never happen, roughly matching the 14% from Yale Opinion Maps who don’t believe in global warming.

Here too there is a dramatic partisan divide. Only 31% of Republicans believe these effects have already begun (down from 35% the year before) vs. 91% for Democrats (up from 82% the year before). Independents are solidly in the middle going from 59% to 66%.

In another report Gallup provides more detailed data on timing (will start in a few years, will start within my lifetime, will not happen in my lifetime but will in the future, and will never happen) which breaks it down by political affiliation and age group (18-34, 35-54, and 55 and older). The full range in views that it has already begun is 29% for Republicans 55 and 85% for Democrats ages 35-54. Independents are intermediate between Democrats and Republicans. Roughly one-quarter of Republicans think it will never happen, but this is only 1-3% for Democrats. Again, Independents are between the two but closer to Democrats.

The Consequences of Climate Change

These can be seen at the country, local community, and personal level. Yale Opinion Maps found that 58% believe global warming is already harming people in the U.S. or will do so in the next 10 years vs. 42% who said 25+ years or never. Sixty-three percent believe the harm will be a moderate to great amount and 28% think little to none. More people see harm for future generations, 71% compared to 18%, respectively.

The usual political divide exists. According to Gallup, in 2025 only 14% of Republicans felt global warming would post a serious threat in our lifetime compared to 78% of Democrats and 52% of independents. The August 9, 2023 Pew Center Report shows a similar partisan divide and that it has been growing over time. In 2010, 61% of Democrats viewed climate change as a major threat to the country compared to 25% of Republicans. In 2022 those numbers were 78% and 23%, respectively.

Similarly, when asked about the effect of climate change on the local community, 41% of Democrats said it was doing so a great deal compared to 12% of Republicans. The U.S. average s 26%. There is also a bit of variation by region with the highest being 32% in New England and the Pacific (31%) and the lowest being the West (21%). These numbers are likely driven by differences in political affiliation in these regions.

Yale Opinion Maps found a nearly even split between people who have personally experienced the effects of climate change (49%) and those who have not (51%). The same is true for feeling that global warming will harm them personally, 45% for a great or moderate amount and 46% for little to none. Again, there is a partisan divide. The December 6,2024 Pew report finds that while 32% of Democrats expect to make major sacrifices in their own life due to the effects of climate change, this is true for only 14% of Republicans (the national average is 23%). At the other extreme, while only 10% of Democrats expect no sacrifices, this is true for 39% of Republicans. These numbers are telling. Most people, even most Democrats, do not see climate change as having a big effect on them personally and this has obvious implications for what policies to address climate change will be acceptable to most Americans.

Views vary by age as well. These range from 30% on major sacrifices and 13% with none for those 18-29, to 15% and 41%, respectively, for those 65 and older.

Reactions to the News About Climate Change

The partisan divide on climate change is a dramatic one in terms of how important it is compared to other issues, whether it is caused by human activity or not, how soon its effects will be felt, and how severe these effects will be nationally, locally, and personally. There is also some variation by age, but the basic partisan pattern persists.

Those most alarmed about climate change like to say, “The science is settled.” While that is true in terms of the phenomenon itself, how severe these effects will be in the long term is open to some disagreement. Policies, technological innovation, and intelligent adaptation all play important roles. For a good review of the current state of climate science and the importance of accurately communicating on it to form public policy see “A Guide to Climate Science” by Nick Loris, Executive Vice President of the center-right climate think tank C3 Solutions. He notes “the well-established scientific fact that human-induced warming affects the planet.” Loris also points out that “’Trust the science’” is becoming a charged phrase, but the reality is the current scientific understanding does not support catastrophic alarmism or climate denialism.” Unfortunately, the former is too common on the left and the latter is too common on the right. The result is dramatic swings in climate policy depending on which party holds the Presidency.

Stepping back, the science may be settled but how many Americans have the time and knowledge to read the science and be convinced? My unscientific guess is that it’s less than 1.0%. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in 2023 there were about 267 million Americans age 16 and older. At 1.0% that would represent 2.67 million Americans reading about the science of climate change and that’s probably generous. Sounds high to me. Probably closer to 0.1% or 267,000. As you can easily from reading Loris’s paper, this is complicated stuff.

Americans’ perceptions about climate change are largely based on what they read in the news and what they hear from their friends who are getting it the same way. According to Gallup, only 20% of Americans view the news as being generally correct about the seriousness of global warming and this is down from about 35% in 1997. The rest are basically evenly split between generally exaggerated (41%) and generally underestimated (38%). So four-fifths of Americans don’t trust the news about global warming.

Gallup shows that the partisan divide is dramatic. In 2025 nearly four-fifths (78%) of Republicans believe the news exaggerates the seriousness of global warming compared to only 6% of Democrats and Independents, once again, firmly lodged between the two at 38% (up from 31%). The same partisan divide exists in terms of friendships, so people are largely talking to like-minded poeple about climate change, and Democrats for sure talking about it more.

A recent study, “The Politicization of Climate Science: Media Consumption, Perceptions of Science and Scientists, and Support for Policy,” documents the link between views on climate change and where a person gets those views. It notes that “Climate change and political polarization have been characterized as two of the twenty-first century’s critical socio-political issues (Falkenberg et al., Citation2022). Critically, the two are intertwined. Most people are exposed to information about science through the media (Hwang & Southwell, Citation2009; Ophir, Citation2018).” The authors found that conservative media are much less likely than liberal or moderate media to see climate change as attributable to human activity and be concerned about it. This study also found that conservatives are more likely to just consume news from conservative media than the converse for moderates and liberals. Furthermore, conservatives have a high level of distrust about liberal media. Pew found 55% of Republicans are confused about the information out there on climate change–but this was also true for 39% of Democrats.

Hence, the partisan reaction to how the news treats climate change is no surprise. It is not the science per se that’s important. It’s the source that is talking about the science. So if the source doesn’t believe the science is settled, that settles it for the people who rely on that source. Conversely, if the greatest concerns are being expressed by liberal media it almost automatically follows that conservatives will be suspicious. The issue of climate change is less about the science and much more about the culture war taking place in the America where climate change has become a liberal issue. Consistent with this, according to Pew 75% of Republicans are suspicious of the groups and people pushing for climate action while this is true for only 28% of Democrats. Nearly one-half of Republicans (52%) are annoyed with how much attention is being paid to climate change vs. only 13% for Democrats.

Finally, and most striking to me, Pew found that 88% of Democrats are frustrated with the level of political disagreement but so are 73% of Republicans. Being ever the optimist, I see this as a great opportunity to create a new American narrative regarding climate change. It isn’t a liberal one of climate alarmism or a conservative one of climate denialism. Each rejects the other and the 50% in the middle don’t buy either one. Creating a common American narrative won’t be easy. But it’s absolutely necessary if we are to make progress in America to address the challenge of climate change which will affect all of us for generations to come. Regardless of our political convictions.